How eMarketer Estimates Spending On US Mobile Advertising
Projected mobile ad spending: $7.65 billion in 2013. Estimated 75.3% increase from 2012. How did we estimate that? Every figure eMarketer publishes is the result of comprehensive analysis of information collected from virtually
every research source covering a given topic. We carefully evaluate these data sets for historical accuracy, definitional discrepancies and methodology - all before incorporating them into our own analytical models, These models then
inform our conclusions about the overall market.
We create bottom-up models for major players in the US mobile ad market by building company figures
- Dozens of data types are gathered on these companies from: 1) 100+ research firms; 2) 50+ interviews with industry execs; 3) 300+ data points.
Then we analyze those data points to create estimates for each company
- For example, to build Google's model, we analyzed: 1) Reported figures from Google: Revenue figures; Traffic acquisition costs; Usage; Other disclosures; 2) Figures from outside sources: Revenue estimates from research firms; Ad
impression estimates and pricing; Interviews with industry executives; Site traffic and other figures. Result: $3.9 billion US mobile ad revenue.
- Top-earning companies, by mobile ad revenue: 1) Facebook - $1.1b; 2) YP - $378m; 3) Pandora - $375.7 m; 4) Twitter - $266 m; 5) Apple (iAD) - $212.9ml 6) Millennial Media - $94.4m.
Incorporating our findings on each company, we then build models for each mobile ad format
- We analyzed 42 data points from 9 research sources (the estimates vary wildly). From this analysis, as well as our own knowledge of the marketplace, we concluded: 1) Display: Research estimates - $714 m - $3.4 b; eMarketer
estimate - $3.38b; 2) Search: Research estimates - $954 m-$3.9 b; eMarketer estimate - $3.95b; 3) Messaging: Research estimates - $215m-$468m; eMarketer estimate - $216m; 4) Video: Research estimates - $294m - $517m;
eMarketer estimate - $518m; 5) Other: eMarketer estimate - $100m.
We substantiate our bottom-up models by analyzing overall mobile ad market estimates
- We compared: 1) 49 data points; 2) 27 estimates of mobile ad spending; 3) 22 estimates for mobile ad spending growth. We compare and validate all findings to growth trends in areas related to mobile advertising, including
smartphone, tablet, and mobile social network usage, overall economic growth, B2C m-commerce sales growth, overall digital and total media advertising spending growth, and other factors (Keys: Estimated total mobile ad spending
dollars (billions); Estimated % of mobile ad spending growth) : 1) Winterberry Group ($7.2b, 77%); 2) J. P. Morgan ($7.1b, 79.8%); 3) JMP Securities ($5.9b, 76%); 4) Cowen & Company ($5.7b, 67.8%); 5) Barclays Capital ($5.4b,
70.2%); 6) BIA/Kelsey ($5.4b, 66.9%); 7) Jefferies ($4.4b, 56.7%); 8) Cantor Fitzgerald ($4.3b, 65%); 9) Thinkequity LLC ($4.3b, 55.2%); 10) Pivotal Research Group ($4.3b, 43.3%); 11) Forrester Research ($4.2b, 52.2%); 12)
Zenithoptimedia ($1.9b, 50.4%); 13) William Blair & Company ($1.5b, 38.3%).
In total, our comprehensive analysis combined: 400 data points, 100+ research sources, dozens of data types & multiple models. Result: $7.65 billion in 2013 | eMarketer | Numbers are rounded. eMarketer evaluated these
figures based on methodology and definitions, accounting for frequent discrepancies and variance from firm to firm, before incorporating each data set into our own statistical model
Sources: Apple; Barclays Capital; BIA/Kelsey; Cantor Fitzgerald; Credit Suisse; Cowen and Company; Facebook; Google; JMP Securities; J. P. Morgan; Jefferies; MAGNAGLOBAL; Millennial Media; Pivotal Research Group; William
Blair & Company; PricewaterhouseCoopers; Winterberry Group; Yankee Group; Yellow pages; Forrester; ZenithOptimedia.